MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has formalized a goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly endorsed industry development strategy. This figure is included within the projected scenarios of Russia’s revised coal growth blueprint. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government sanctioned this plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, establishing long-term benchmarks for output, exports, and industry expansion.
The strategy delineates four potential pathways for the coal sector through to 2050. Under the primary scenario, production levels are expected to reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, ultimately climbing to 662 million tonnes in 2050. The alternative scenarios project lower 2050 production figures, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, Russia has set export targets. In the main scenario, coal exports are projected at 266.7 million tonnes for 2030, then increasing to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international trade activities.
Production and export forecasts
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding coal resource development, with an emphasis on increasing the roles of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East regions. In 2024, these regions contributed 48.3% of national coal production, and by 2050, their share is anticipated to grow between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia reports reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes of explored coal deposits.
The plan further targets advancements in coal processing and mining techniques, with processed coal, excluding lignite, accounting for 58.9% in 2024, and aiming to reach between 74% and 76% by 2050. In 2024, open-pit mining represented 78.4% of production; under the long-term projections, its share is expected to increase to between 82% and 85%. The strategy also includes measures related to productivity improvement, technological upgrades, safety standards, and environmental protection.
Coal industry strategy extends until 2050
Russia plans to implement this strategy through three phases. The initial phase, concluding in 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting the industry; the second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will prioritize coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics; and the final phase, spanning from 2037 to 2050, aims to solidify progress and adapt to future demands. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution of this plan in collaboration with federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, providing annual reports to the Economic Development Ministry as required by the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the revised plan during a government session held on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry program, which was approved through 2035 in 2020. Novak mentioned that the plan envisions a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with a total multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario within the plan, not an unconditional forecast.