MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia aims to increase its yearly vehicle manufacturing to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035, as part of its revised automotive industry strategy. During a meeting focused on the sector’s progress on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target, which encompasses vehicles for both domestic consumption and export markets. The plan also envisions reaching an 80% share of locally produced vehicles within Russia’s new-vehicle market by 2035.
On Aug. 24, the Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy, extending the industry’s framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s annual vehicle production capacity was approximately 3.3 million units, although actual output that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles, with truck and bus production rates reaching 35% and 43% respectively.
The scenario set for 2035 projects production of around 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles. It also envisions manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. The plan assigns passenger-car production to four or five different vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles would be produced on one or two. The overall new-vehicle market in 2035 is projected to be about 3.2 million units, with imports potentially making up as much as 20% of that total.
All vehicle segments included in the production targets
A secondary scenario within the strategy outlines more modest production and market figures, with annual vehicle output reaching approximately 1.69 million units by 2035 and the new-vehicle market estimated at about 2.2 million units in that year. For 2030, the primary target scenario expects the market to reach around 2.4 million units, whereas the more conservative baseline forecasts roughly 2 million vehicles across all segments by 2030.
Technological and powertrain objectives also feature prominently in the revised framework. The share of internal-combustion vehicles is expected to be between 67% and 83% of production in 2035, varying by vehicle segment. Meanwhile, electric and hybrid passenger cars should constitute at least 25% of the domestic new passenger-car market by then. The strategy additionally aims for the production of approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher in 2035, and emphasizes the importance of driver-assistance systems and digital vehicle technologies.
Capacity and localization targets remain essential benchmarks
The current manufacturing infrastructure in Russia exceeds its recent annual production levels significantly. In 2025, passenger-car capacity was about 2.8 million units, while actual output was close to 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity was approximately 300,000 units, with a production of about 80,000. Truck capacity totaled roughly 130,000 units, and buses were produced at a capacity near 30,000. Electric vehicle production in 2025 reached around 4,400 vehicles, slightly up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035, while also setting higher localization and technological independence goals for domestically manufactured vehicles. Covering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies, the framework seeks to align the 2.8 million annual production goal with an 80% market share for domestic vehicles, supported by an implementation plan mandated under the order approving the new strategy.