GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has revised its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade growth in 2026, increasing it to 3.9 percent from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent issued in March. The organization attributed this upward revision to robust first-half trade figures, shifts in supply chain dynamics, and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions in energy, transportation, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the first half of 2026. The WTO now projects merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent for 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a prominent role in merchandise trade expansion during the initial half of the year, with AI-enabled products such as semiconductors and servers representing 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these items surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the WTO highlighted that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The robust demand for computing hardware supported trade performance amid ongoing disruptions in other sectors caused by conflicts and logistical bottlenecks.
Furthermore, international supply chains adapted to pressures across key commodity and shipping markets. Notably, crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region declined by 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative sources mitigated the decline in crude oil exports to around 6 percent globally, with LNG exports falling just 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput worldwide increased by 3.9 percent through July as trade moved through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
This more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts sharply with the more subdued projections for international services trade, which the WTO has lowered in its forecast for 2026 from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. The sectors most affected include transport and international travel, which faced increased disruptions in the Middle East; international tourist arrivals dropped by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, and although they remained 0.4 percent higher over the first half of the year overall, growth in travel spending slowed dramatically between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, some service sectors experienced positive growth despite the setbacks in travel and transport. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, with the WTO estimating a 12 percent growth in the second quarter. Financial services exports also rose by 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. Looking ahead, the WTO predicts a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027, alongside a forecast for global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Uneven regional trade expansion persists
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal significant disparities across the global economy. The WTO anticipates Asia will lead the growth with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is expected to see a 5.7 percent rise, and Africa a 5.6 percent gain. South America is projected to grow by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe is likely to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East is expected to face the sharpest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, import growth varies substantially across regions, with Asia projected to see a 9.5 percent increase, and Africa around 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to grow by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, Middle Eastern merchandise imports are expected to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that these latest figures demonstrate the resilience of global trade while also revealing the varying degrees of exposure to economic and geopolitical shocks across different regions.