BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, higher prices for road fuel are expected to contribute an estimated €53 billion more to European Union transport expenses. This estimate was published by Transport & Environment on September 23 after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending on September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditure during this period with the same timeframe in the previous year, accounting for inflation adjustments. Of this additional cost, approximately €40 billion is attributable to diesel. The calculation specifically covers diesel and petrol expenditures related to road transportation.
According to T&E, the rise in fuel prices led to an average daily increase of €270 million in EU road transport costs, with diesel contributing roughly €203 million of that figure and petrol adding around €67 million. The organization linked this surge to tighter refined-fuel supplies resulting from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the disparity between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Notably, diesel and gasoil comprise approximately 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has also reported significant market volatility in crude oil and refined products, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU does not face an immediate oil supply shortage. They noted that increased refinery production within the EU and alternative global supplies continue to meet demand, with commercial and emergency oil stocks remaining adequate. The Commission attributed the persistent price fluctuations to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties impacting global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising diesel prices impact drivers and freight businesses
For individual drivers, T&E estimated that the typical EU diesel car owner spent approximately €142 more during the analyzed period. By September 14, the group calculated an extra €30 cost on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict baseline prices. Long-haul trucking in Germany faced an average weekly additional fuel expense of about €236. The analysis estimates that Europe is home to roughly 6.2 million trucks operating on its roads. The increased diesel prices have also significantly affected freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains the key fuel for EU road transport and freight activity. T&E reported that in 2024, road transport accounted for 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil use. Data from Eurostat indicate that gases and diesel oils supplied 63.2% of the energy used for road transport that year, with motor gasoline contributing 26.9% and renewables and biofuels providing 6.2%. Electricity’s share was only 0.7%, while diesel and gasoline alone made up 90.1% of the energy consumption in road transport during 2024.
EU’s fuel prices remain under close watch with recent data
The European Commission issued its latest Weekly Oil Bulletin on September 24, which includes current consumer petroleum prices across member states. This bulletin tracks weekly price changes, both with and without taxes, and provides a historical series dating back to 2005. The update follows the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparative analyses. Its September 8 supply assessment also highlighted diesel and jet fuel among products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure estimated by T&E remains a projection from the environmental organization rather than an official EU figure. This calculation reflects additional road fuel spending over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report details the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, noting that diesel accounts for most of the anticipated increase. T&E has called for measures aimed at reducing diesel consumption and promoting vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum usage across the bloc.